There are some sports perspectives that make no sense, and this Lars Nootbaar idea, which has been circulated by some St. Louis Cardinals reporters, is one of those.
The Cardinals recently announced that Nootbaar had surgery on both of his heels to reduce Haglund’s deformities. The timeline for his rehabilitation is unknown at the moment.
Because of this, Randy Karraker of STL Sports Central recently wondered on their channel if the Cardinals would non-tender Nootbaar and save the $5.7 million in arbitration he is expected to be owed this offseason, and others have wondered the same thing, but I’m here to tell you that would be an insane decision that the Cardinals are unlikely to consider.
There is no way the Cardinals non-tender Lars Nootbaar this offseason
In the past, I advocated for Nootbaar’s value and potential as a baseball player. I’ve definitely cooled on that sentiment and would be fine with the Cardinals dealing Nootbaar this offseason, but not tendering him makes no sense for a franchise that wants to maximize value and talent rather than waste it away.
Lars Nootbaar has a career slash line of.242/.341/.406, good for a.747 OPS and 110 wRC+, while playing above-average defense in the corner outfield positions and passing in center field if necessary. Since 2022, he has averaged 2.1 fWAR and 117 games played per season, totaling 8.9 fWAR in 527 games.
When evaluating the possibility of non-tendering a player, a team’s main concern is value. Clubs won’t hesitate to cut ties if they believe a player’s on-field production won’t justify his salary. In Lars Nootbaar’s case, however, it would take a truly disastrous season—worse than his 2025 campaign—for him not to be worth his projected arbitration salary.
FanGraphs’ “Dollars” metric translates a player’s fWAR into an estimated market value, with each 1.0 fWAR worth roughly $8.375 million. Nootbaar’s projected arbitration figure this offseason is $5.7 million, so let’s compare that to what he’s been worth to St. Louis in past seasons.
Nootbaar’s fWAR and “Dollars” value
2022: 2.6 fWAR – $21.1 million
2023: 3.1 fWAR – $25.2 million
2024: 1.7 fWAR – $13.7 million
2025: 0.8 fWAR – $6.7 million
In every full season since becoming a regular, Nootbaar’s performance has exceeded his projected 2026 salary. Even during his worst year in 2025, he still provided more value than what the Cardinals will pay him.
So why would the team even consider non-tendering him?
Yes, his recovery timeline after surgery is unclear. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat has cited examples of athletes who faced lengthy recoveries from similar procedures in the late 2010s. However, Bernie Miklasz recently reported on STL Sports Central that advances in medical techniques have significantly shortened recovery times, according to doctors he consulted.
While Nootbaar’s surgery might make him harder to trade this offseason, there’s no doubt teams would eagerly pursue him if he became a free agent. If St. Louis doesn’t get a trade offer they like, the sensible move is to keep him, let him compete for a roster spot, and reassess his value midseason or next winter. Assuming he returns to form, he should be one of their stronger contributors.
For a rebuilding team, letting go of a controllable, productive player for nothing would be a serious mistake.
The Cardinals are already trimming payroll through potential trades of Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, and Willson Contreras. They’re also shedding $17.6 million with Miles Mikolas entering free agency and about $30 million more through the exits of Ryan Helsley, Steven Matz, Erick Fedde, and Phil Maton. Without further moves, their projected 2026 payroll sits around $123 million—down from $178 million in 2024 and $144 million in 2025, even after arbitration adjustments.
Cutting Nootbaar to save $5.7 million would be absurd. For a club already slashing nearly $100 million over two years, sacrificing a valuable player just to pinch pennies would be indefensible. The idea should be dropped entirely.