The wave of contract option decisions rolling through Major League Baseball after the World Series has already started to shape the market for starting pitchers.
While the St. Louis Cardinals have yet to lay out the specifics of their offseason plans, President of Baseball Operations Chaim Bloom has made it clear that improving the starting rotation is a priority. The team is expected to pursue short-term pitching options, with no major financial limitations, though long-term deals appear unlikely. The Cardinals are also expected to explore trades for at least one high-priced veteran starter. As the market takes shape, trading a big-name arm like Sonny Gray becomes increasingly plausible.
Gray is due $35 million in the final year of his three-year deal signed in November 2023, along with a $5 million buyout for a $30 million option in 2027, bringing his total guaranteed payout to $40 million. That hefty figure raises the question of whether the Cardinals might need to absorb part of his contract to move him. Still, given Gray’s solid performance and the state of the pitching market, such a cost might be acceptable for a contending club. His fielding independent pitching (FIP) was nearly a run lower than his ERA, and an unusually high batting average on balls in play suggests some of his home run issues in 2025 were more bad luck than decline.
Gray made 32 starts, threw 180 innings, and struck out 201 batters—proof he remains a dependable, top-tier pitcher. However, his no-trade clause could complicate finding a trade partner, as he can veto unwanted destinations. His value looks even stronger when compared to other pitchers’ recent decisions. Toronto’s Shane Bieber exercised his one-year, $16 million option after a strong finish, and former Cardinal Jack Flaherty stayed with Detroit for $20 million rather than testing free agency again. Meanwhile, the Cubs made one of the offseason’s first surprises by declining their half of Shota Imanaga’s option, which would have kept him for three years at just under $60 million. Despite concerns over Imanaga’s home run rate, he should easily surpass that value in free agency—though uncertainty around the 2027 labor negotiations may have influenced Chicago’s decision. Teams are wary of committing long-term deals amid talk of a possible salary cap or spending limits.
That same uncertainty likely pushed Bieber and Flaherty to stick with one-year options instead of seeking multi-year deals. In this environment, teams prefer short-term flexibility, even if it means paying higher salaries up front. For the Cardinals, this trend could work in their favor as they look to fill out their rotation. They’re expected to add at least one veteran starter, possibly more, depending on the trade market. If Gray is dealt, the rotation will need reinforcements—only Matthew Liberatore and Michael McGreevy are guaranteed to return. After enjoying unusually good health last season, the Cardinals can’t count on that luck again.
To stay competitive and avoid another disappointing season, they’ll need dependable arms and veteran stability. In a winter dominated by one-year contracts for starting pitchers, the Cardinals should find plenty of opportunities. How they capitalize on them will be the first major test for Bloom’s new front office.