Death, taxes, and Nolan Arenado becoming entangled in trade speculations. Such is the cycle of life, as well as the situation of the St. Louis Cardinals’ third baseman.
Last year, similar whispers nearly led to a deal and a new home for Arenado, but he used his no-trade right to reject a deal with the Houston Astros. Thus, he stayed with the Cardinals until 2025, and when the team finished 78-84 and held a light garage sale at the trade deadline, he is back on the trade market.
The chance of a trade involving Arenado appears to have grown with Chaim Bloom formally replacing John Mozeliak in the front office, and oddly enough, Bloom’s old stomping grounds may prove to be the ideal destination for the 10-time Gold Glove winner.
Unlike the rebuilding Cardinals, the Red Sox appear to be trending upward after reaching the postseason for the first time in four years. They boast a young and highly talented core—most of whom are already locked into long-term deals—but Alex Bregman’s decision to opt out has left them without a veteran presence to complement shortstop Trevor Story.
Nolan Arenado could fill that void as an appealing, lower-cost alternative to Bregman. Many analysts expect Bregman to command a five- or six-year contract worth around $30 million per season. By contrast, Arenado is under contract for just two more years at $31 million total, with part of that still being covered by the Colorado Rockies. If St. Louis chips in some salary, Boston could essentially acquire a proven veteran third baseman for about $10 million a year.
Granted, Arenado is no longer quite at his peak, nor does he match Bregman’s offensive output. The Cardinals’ third baseman slashed .237/.289/.377 (84 wRC+), his weakest performance since 2020, while Bregman posted a much stronger .273/.360/.462 (125 wRC+).
Even so, Arenado’s elite defense—three Outs Above Average and six Defensive Runs Saved compared to Bregman’s three OAA and one DRS—and his right-handed pop that plays perfectly with Fenway Park’s Green Monster make him a natural fit for the Red Sox. For a team seeking short-term stability and leadership at third base, he’d check every box.
It’s worth noting that before Boston unexpectedly landed Bregman last winter, they were among the teams most closely linked to Arenado. The mutual interest has long existed, and if Chaim Bloom can rekindle discussions with his former club, perhaps this offseason’s trade chatter won’t end in another dead end for St. Louis.