The 2026 MLB season has been a rollercoaster for Philadelphia Phillies starter Aaron Nola, but unfortunately, the lows have outweighed the highs.
There have been glimpses of the pitcher Phillies fans have come to expect. His six shutout innings against the Miami Marlins were a bright spot, and consecutive strong outings versus the San Diego Padres suggested he may have been turning a corner.
However, those positive performances have been the exception rather than the rule. Through 13 starts in 2026, Nola has allowed two runs or fewer just four times. On five occasions, he has surrendered at least four runs, leaving Philadelphia with an uphill battle whenever he has taken the mound.
So what’s driving the inconsistency? A major issue has been Nola’s inability to consistently neutralize left-handed hitters, who have found plenty of success against his current pitch mix.
Aaron Nola Continues to Be Punished by Left-Handed Batters
Left-handed hitters have done significant damage against Nola this season. Across 154 plate appearances, they have posted a .311/.396/.515 slash line while collecting six home runs, seven doubles and a triple. Much of that production has come against his four-seam fastball, which opponents have attacked aggressively.
According to Eno Sarris of The Athletic (subscription required), Nola has used his four-seam fastball 29% of the time against left-handed hitters. While the pitch carries a league-average 100 Stuff+, opponents have produced a staggering .974 slugging percentage against it, along with a .762 expected slugging percentage (xSLG).
Even if those numbers eventually regress, a .762 xSLG remains highly concerning. One possible adjustment would be increasing the use of his cutter. Although the pitch owns a lower 92 Stuff+, left-handed hitters have managed only a .455 slugging percentage against it and a much lower .277 xSLG.
Nola has already begun reducing his four-seam usage against lefties and incorporating the cutter more frequently, but the results remain inconsistent. After allowing just four runs over 11 innings in two starts against San Diego, he was tagged for five runs in only 4.1 innings by the Chicago White Sox.
Against Chicago, Nola distributed his four-seamer, cutter and sinker at nearly identical rates. That makes the outing even more frustrating, as the pitch-mix adjustment did not prevent hard contact.
His secondary pitches have been far more effective. Both his curveball and changeup have generated excellent results, but he has often struggled to get into favorable counts that would allow him to lean on those offerings more heavily.
It remains a situation worth monitoring as the season progresses. Philadelphia’s coaching staff will continue searching for answers with the veteran right-hander, and there were signs that his stuff showed more life in May than it did earlier in April.