Aaron Nola has experienced plenty of highs and lows during his time with the Phillies, but early in the 2025 season, one concern is becoming hard to ignore. After a sluggish start, questions are growing about the 31-year-old’s declining fastball velocity and erratic command—both troubling signs for a pitching staff depending heavily on him.
Through five outings, Nola holds an 0-5 record with a 5.40 ERA, a 1.140 WHIP, and 37 strikeouts over 30 innings. But what’s drawing the most scrutiny isn’t on the stat sheet—it’s on the radar gun. His fastball is averaging just 90 mph, the lowest of his career at this point in a season. Although Nola claims it’s part of his usual early-season buildup, opponents are capitalizing on the reduced speed and punishing his mistakes.
Another red flag is his declining ability to get ahead in counts. His first-pitch strike rate has dropped to 56.3%, leading to more extended at-bats, an increased walk rate of 8.7% (up from his career average of 6.4%), and fewer chances to finish off hitters.
As ESPN’s Dave Schoenfield noted, Nola has long been plagued by inconsistency—strong seasons followed by statistical regressions. But this year, his struggles seem more rooted in mechanics and execution than randomness or bad luck.
Still, there are reasons for optimism. Statcast data shows his curveball remains a potent weapon, especially with two strikes. His PutAway rate on the pitch is up to 26.5%, with a 51% whiff rate—both better than last year. And despite the drop in speed, he’s still getting weaker contact on his sinker when he’s ahead in counts.
For the Phillies, that effective version of Nola—who controls the strike zone and limits damage—is essential, especially behind ace Zack Wheeler.
The silver lining is that Nola’s velocity has historically improved as the season progresses. The concern? The Phillies can’t afford to wait too long. If these warning signs persist, it could do more than just damage his record—it might jeopardize the team’s entire playoff outlook.
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