Just over a decade ago, the St. Louis Cardinals were devastated by the tragic death of promising young outfielder Oscar Taveras. Ever since, they’ve been on a quest to find the next homegrown star to fill the void he left behind.
They made a move for 25-year-old Jason Heyward, but he departed after just one season in free agency. President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak was so confident in Dylan Carlson’s potential that he once said trading him would only happen “if you’re willing to pry him through my dead hands.” Nolan Gorman drew hype as a top-20 prospect thanks to his raw power, and Jordan Walker, viewed by some as the best prospect in baseball entering 2023, was seen as their next big hope.
Despite all their efforts, the Cardinals’ next breakout star might have been in their system all along — and now, he’s finally getting a real chance to prove it.
Ivan Herrera, like many other St. Louis prospects, was fast-tracked through the minors. His bat kept producing, and with Yadier Molina nearing retirement, the Cardinals gave Herrera his MLB debut at 22. But after just 11 games and 22 plate appearances — during which he struggled on both sides of the ball — the team shifted course and signed Willson Contreras.
Since that brief stint, Herrera has done nothing but hit. Dating back to the start of the 2023 season, he’s slashed .311/.388/.475, with a walk rate of 10% and a strikeout rate under 21%. His 143 wRC+ ranks 12th in the league, ahead of stars like Bryce Harper, Bobby Witt Jr., Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Gunnar Henderson.
Yes, it’s only 340 plate appearances over three seasons — a relatively small sample — but it’s still enough to suggest he has real talent. Under the surface, his walk rate is in the top quarter of MLB hitters, and among the top 20 players in wRC+ during that time, he boasts one of the lowest strikeout rates. On top of that, Herrera ranks 38th out of 445 batters with at least 300 PAs in HardHit%, and he’s fourth in line drive percentage.
While it may seem bold to declare Herrera the star the Cardinals have been searching for, the numbers back it up. Everything he’s shown so far at the Major League level points to one thing: Ivan Herrera is the real deal with the bat.
Ivan Herrera is the star bat the Cardinals have been looking to develop for over a decade
Herrera’s season has already been interrupted by a month-long stint on the injured list, but when he’s been healthy and on the field, he’s done nothing but mash. Through 46 plate appearances, he’s slashing an eye-popping .385/.457/.872 with a 255 wRC+. He currently leads all of MLB in Hard-Hit% at 51.6%, and his home run to fly ball rate is a staggering 62.5%.
It’s clear this pace isn’t sustainable — he’s been even more productive than Aaron Judge over this small sample, and we all know how incredible Judge’s season has been. Regression is inevitable. Still, considering Herrera posted a 121 wRC+ in 2023 and a 127 wRC+ in 2024, it’s fair to wonder just how high his offensive ceiling might be.
A lot of the underlying metrics back up what we’re seeing. His xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Barrel rate, average exit velocity, Hard-Hit%, LA Sweet-Spot%, bat speed, Whiff%, and walk rate are all among the league’s best in this limited action.
This isn’t a sudden breakout either. Over the past two years, Herrera’s expected stats have been elite, his bat speed consistently strong, and his launch angle distribution highly effective. He’s always shown excellent plate discipline, rarely swings and misses, and draws walks at an impressive rate. All of that points to a hitter with serious upside.
While most of the offseason buzz centered around Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker, it’s Herrera who’s breaking through as the Cardinals’ most impactful young bat. St. Louis is right to stay patient with Gorman and Walker, but it feels like Herrera’s emergence hasn’t gotten the attention it deserves.
Most conversations about Herrera tend to focus on his arm strength behind the plate. And while it’s acknowledged that he can hit, the level he’s reached offensively hasn’t been emphasized enough. If Walker or Gorman were putting up these numbers, it would likely be the biggest story in St. Louis — possibly even nationally. Instead, Herrera is often treated as a secondary part of the Cardinals’ young core when, in reality, he should be front and center.
Based on his performance, Herrera deserves to hit in the heart of the order — second, cleanup, or fifth. Batting him sixth doesn’t reflect the impact he’s making. While Nolan Arenado is having a better year than last, he hasn’t produced at a level that justifies hitting ahead of Herrera. With Nootbaar, Winn, Donovan, and Contreras all performing well in their current roles, the logical move would be to flip Arenado and Herrera in the lineup.
Until proven otherwise, Herrera should be viewed as the centerpiece of the Cardinals’ next generation. All indications suggest he’s one of the premier hitters in the game. Even if regression brings him back to earth — and no, he’s not going to outslug Aaron Judge for a full season — he still looks like a top-tier bat, something the Cardinals have lacked outside of peak years from Goldschmidt and Arenado.
If he can make steady progress defensively and remain at catcher, he has the potential to be one of baseball’s best all-around players. Even if he eventually shifts to first base or becomes a full-time DH, the bat alone makes him an elite asset in today’s game.
It’s unfortunate we never got to see Oscar Taveras’ career fully unfold. Jason Heyward moving on to Chicago worked out for the best. Dylan Carlson hasn’t lived up to expectations, but there’s still time for Gorman — and especially Walker — to turn things around.
But as things stand right now, Herrera has been nothing short of outstanding in the early stages of his big league career. It’s time more people start paying attention.