The 2024–25 season was nothing short of a disaster for the New York Rangers, and one of the most glaring reasons for their failure to reach the playoffs was the underperformance of key players — none more disappointing than top star. As the organization looks ahead to 2025–26, serious questions linger about his future with the team and whether it’s time to consider moving on.
Statistically, the drop-off is hard to ignore. According to Micah Blake McCurdy’s “sG” metric — a value above replacement statistic from Hockey Viz — he had graded out as a first-line caliber player for four straight seasons from 2020–21 through 2023–24. But this past year, his performance plummeted to that of a third-line forward. For a player known for his consistency and two-way impact, such a steep decline raises red flags.
Whether the front office and coaching staff should panic depends on how they interpret this downturn. If the Rangers believe his struggles were the result of a down year due to poor team play, injuries, or deployment issues, there may be hope for a rebound. But if this marks the beginning of a true regression, the organization may need to weigh its options — especially given Trocheck’s age, contract, and the Rangers’ need to retool around their core.
At the very least, Trocheck will enter 2025–26 with something to prove. But if his play doesn’t rebound early in the season, the pressure will mount quickly — and the Rangers might be forced to explore trade scenarios or lineup changes to avoid another lost year.
It’s not just Hockey Viz that highlights Vincent Trocheck’s decline — Evolving-Hockey’s metrics tell a similar story.
This past season, Trocheck recorded a Goals For percentage (GF%) of 51.31, a Corsi For percentage (CF%) of 52.15, and an Expected Goals For percentage (xGF%) of just 47.42. While the raw goals and shot attempts suggest Trocheck was part of relatively successful shifts in terms of possession and scoring, the expected goals metric is particularly concerning. That 47.42 xGF% indicates the Rangers were likely getting out-chanced in high-danger areas when Trocheck was on the ice — a sign that his impact may have been more hollow than the surface numbers suggest.
In previous seasons, Trocheck was typically above water in all three categories, reflecting his ability to tilt the ice and drive play in both directions. The dip in expected goals suggests he may have lost a step, struggled to generate quality scoring chances, or simply failed to impact games as effectively — whether due to aging, system fit, or declining chemistry with linemates.
For a player the Rangers expected to be a reliable second-line center, these kinds of numbers — across multiple trusted analytics platforms — signal a legitimate cause for concern entering 2025–26. If the decline continues, it will be harder for New York’s front office to justify his role and cap hit moving forward.
All things considered, Trocheck’s numbers this past season aren’t catastrophic — a 51.31 GF%, 52.15 CF%, and 47.42 xGF% still suggest he was involved in more positive sequences than not. But the real issue comes into focus when you look at the bigger picture.
Just a season ago, his Goals For percentage was 54.95% — a significant drop of nearly four percentage points. His Corsi For percentage remained flat at 52.15%, indicating that shot volume stayed consistent, but the real red flag lies in the Expected Goals For percentage, which dropped to 47.42%, down from what was already a concerning figure last season.
That steady xGF% decline paints a troubling picture: the quality of chances being created when Trocheck is on the ice is decreasing, while the chances against may be increasing or staying the same. Even though his possession numbers haven’t cratered, the impact of those possessions is diminishing. In essence, he’s still involved, but less effective.
For a veteran player entering the latter half of his contract, that kind of regression — especially after showing strong value above replacement for several seasons — is worth monitoring closely. If the trend continues, the Rangers may have to seriously consider whether Trocheck is part of the solution or a fading asset holding back their progress.
Offensively, Vincent Trocheck’s 2024–25 season wasn’t without production — he posted 26 goals, 33 assists, and 59 points over a full 82-game slate, while shooting 12.9% and averaging 21:06 of ice time per night. On the surface, that’s respectable output for a forward making under $6 million annually. But context matters, and given the significant minutes Trocheck plays — across all situations — the numbers start to look underwhelming.
Especially when you compare them to his previous season’s stat line: 25 goals, 52 assists, and 77 points, with a nearly identical ice time of 21:27 and a slightly lower shooting percentage (11.6%). In a league where success is measured in recent results, it’s fair to say Trocheck has fallen victim to the “what have you done for me lately?” mentality — a reality that spares no veteran, no matter how consistent they’ve been in the past.
One of the biggest explanations for the decline lies in his power play production. Trocheck managed just 12 power play points this season (5 goals, 7 assists), a sharp drop from the 24 points he posted (11 goals, 13 assists) on the man advantage during the Rangers’ Presidents’ Trophy-winning 2023–24 campaign. While some of that drop-off can be attributed to a less effective power play unit, it’s worth questioning whether the unit struggled because Trocheck himself wasn’t as effective.
Interestingly, he made up some ground shorthanded, leading the league with six short-handed goals (plus one assist), a massive leap from the lone shorty he scored the year before. That surge in PK scoring is notable — and commendable — but it still doesn’t fully offset the loss in high-leverage offensive production, particularly when the power play is expected to be a focal point of his value.
At even strength, Trocheck’s numbers were a mixed bag. His 15 goals were a slight uptick from the 13 he had in each of his previous two seasons in New York. However, his 25 even-strength assists marked a sharp decline from 39 in 2023–24 and 34 in 2022–23. While it’s tempting to chalk that up to teammates missing on quality setups — a “potential assists” stat would help here, much like the NBA tracks — the broader offensive trends don’t favor him.
The Rangers as a team scored 23 fewer goals this year (255 vs. 278 the year before), and Trocheck’s production fell off in tandem. But he wasn’t the only one. Artemi Panarin, for instance, had a far more dramatic drop, going from 49 goals and 120 points to just 37 goals and 89 points — a 31-point difference, compared to Trocheck’s 18.
Both regressions are worth examining closely, particularly with Mike Sullivan now taking over behind the bench. This coaching change represents an inflection point for the franchise. President and GM Chris Drury faces critical decisions this offseason — not only in retooling the roster to create cap space, but also in determining which veterans are still essential to the team’s future.
For Trocheck, 2025–26 may be a make-or-break season. While he’s not at the top of the list of underperformers, his declining assist totals, drop in special teams impact, and aging curve all raise questions about his long-term fit in New York. If he can’t bounce back under Sullivan’s system, it’s entirely plausible that his time on Broadway could be nearing its end.