Over the past few seasons, the Rangers’ young forward has flashed his talent, but needs to find greater consistency moving forward. With the first year of a significant contract extension now underway, it’s time for him to prove he can live up to the investment. The arrival of Mike Sullivan as head coach presents a chance for him to elevate his game during what could be a defining season in his career.
Historically, the New York Rangers have successfully developed top-tier defensemen and goaltenders, but have often struggled to produce elite forwards. That trend was expected to shift when they selected Alexis Lafrenière first overall in the 2020 draft. Now entering the initial season of his $7.45 million-per-year extension through 2032, Lafrenière finds himself at a crossroads—coinciding with Sullivan’s debut behind the bench.
The 2024–25 season was a letdown for several Rangers, including Lafrenière, who began the year on a high note. Early on, he played well enough to justify his new contract, which at the time seemed like a potential bargain. However, his final stat line—17 goals and 28 assists for 45 points in 82 games—marked a drop of 11 goals and 12 points from his breakout 2023–24 season.
He spent much of the season alongside Vincent Trocheck and Artemi Panarin on the second line, logging 668 minutes at 5-on-5. The trio posted strong numbers in several key metrics, including a 56.58 goals-for percentage, a 55.94 Corsi-for percentage, and a 51.99 expected goals-for percentage, per Evolving-Hockey. Yet, despite stable linemates and ample ice time, his offensive impact regressed and his defensive performance also took a hit.
Lafrenière’s GF% fell to 48.68 from 52.87, his CF% declined to 52.55 from 55.6, and his xGF% dropped to 48.63—a 3.36% dip from the previous year. Addressing his defensive shortcomings will be crucial, and Sullivan’s coaching could be the catalyst for unlocking Lafrenière’s full potential as the top pick he was projected to be.
Young players have often struggled under the Rangers’ recent coaches—David Quinn, Gerard Gallant, and Peter Laviolette—who tended to favor veterans and prioritized immediate results over development. Sullivan, on the other hand, values both winning and player growth.
A 2023 article in Training Industry, a leadership-focused publication, highlighted lessons from Sullivan’s coaching philosophy. One quote early in the piece particularly resonates with Lafrenière’s current situation.
“We don’t want a player strolling into our video studio on eggshells wondering about ‘Am I going to be in the film? Is Coach about to shout at me in front of everyone? Is he going to criticize me because I made some mistakes?
It is a game of mistakes. “Our responsibility is to learn from them.”
Mike Sullivan
Lafrenière has a clear understanding of his role, and during the 2023-24 playoffs, he emerged as one of the Rangers’ standout performers, tallying 8 goals and 6 assists for 14 points over 16 games. However, in the 2024-25 season, his consistency wavered, with noticeable drop-offs in December (4 points in 13 games), February (2 points in 9 games), and April (2 points in 8 games) when he seemed disengaged.
Heading into this season, the hope is that Lafrenière plays with the “passion and purpose” that have become hallmarks of Coach Mike Sullivan’s approach. Ideally, he enters with a strong sense of his value to the team, learns from last year’s shortcomings, and fully buys into the new coaching staff’s vision for his development.
Jake Guentzel serves as a prime example of a player who steadily improved under Sullivan’s guidance. His first three NHL seasons saw a clear upward trend:
- 2016-17: 16 goals, 17 assists (33 points in 40 games at age 22)
- 2017-18: 22 goals, 26 assists (48 points in 82 games at age 23)
- 2018-19: 40 goals, 36 assists (76 points in 82 games at age 24)
Now entering his sixth NHL season, Lafrenière has already posted 57- and 45-point campaigns. But to take the next step, he needs to hit at least the 65-point mark this year, with anything beyond that being a significant bonus. While the Rangers may not have a Crosby-caliber star to play alongside him, the team still has enough talent to support Lafrenière in reaching a higher level—similar to the impact he once had in the CHL.
Ultimately, whether Lafrenière fulfills his potential rests on his own shoulders. Sullivan will evaluate this early, especially with many of the team’s core players now over 30. The Rangers need someone they can build around long-term. With several high-profile free agents expected to hit the market in 2026, and Lafrenière’s reasonable cap hit, it wouldn’t be surprising if the team considers moving on if his progression stalls. He still has time to prove he’s a key piece of the future—but this season could be make or break, and if he falls short, the responsibility will be his.