St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Willson Contreras has been plagued by poor luck on balls in play so far this season.
Although few analysts expected the Cardinals to contend in 2025, the team has generally exceeded expectations. However, one key player who was supposed to help lead the way—Contreras—hasn’t quite lived up to the high hopes many had for him.
Writers at Redbird Rants largely predicted the Cardinals would hover around a .500 record, but there was widespread agreement that Contreras would be the team’s most valuable player. The belief was that moving him from the physically demanding catcher position to first base would free him to focus on hitting, improving his offensive performance.
Instead, Contreras got off to a rough start. He didn’t push his batting average above .200 until April 23, at which point he had just a .574 OPS. His slump was particularly noticeable because many of his teammates were swinging hot bats.
While hitting is notoriously difficult, it also involves a degree of luck. And it seems Contreras has been especially unlucky. A comparison of his actual weighted on-base average (wOBA) to his expected wOBA (xwOBA) shows a significant gap—his xwOBA sits at .360, while his actual wOBA is just .310. That 50-point difference ranks him among the 15 most “unlucky” hitters in Major League Baseball this season.
Contreras has not had luck on his side so far this year.
Contreras’ numbers have actually improved since earlier in the season. Back on April 23, his expected wOBA (xwOBA) stood at .326, while his actual wOBA lagged far behind at just .256—a significant 70-point gap. His performance began trending upward after that, culminating in a season-high batting average of .261 on May 16 before hitting another slump.
Despite his struggles at the plate, Contreras has consistently exemplified what it means to be a team player for the Cardinals. He willingly transitioned to first base to support the team’s needs and has developed into a better-than-average defender at the position. He further won fans over with his fearless attitude, famously saying about defending bunts, “I don’t care. I’m not afraid. If I’m going to die, I’ll die right there.”
While a prolonged cold streak might derail a less resilient player, Contreras has shown the mental strength to push through the adversity. Although his slow start may prevent him from reaching the high expectations set for him this year, continued improvement could still make him a key contributor in the heart of the lineup.