Before anything else, the financial side has to add up. Make the numbers make sense! That’s the first step. So why would a team like the St. Louis Cardinals, who have been playing strong baseball lately, consider trading a future Hall of Famer like third baseman Nolan Arenado? Although he’s still under contract for a few more seasons, his production has clearly declined now that he’s well into his mid-30s.
This might not be the exact reason President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak would look to move on from Arenado via trade, but if the right offer comes along, it could make sense. The Cardinals have a solid crop of young talent in-house who are prime candidates for contract extensions. Josh Jacobs of Redbird Rants highlighted five such players: Brendan Donovan, Ivan Herrera, Matthew Liberatore, Victor Scott II, and Masyn Winn.
Jacobs noted it might be slightly early to lock in Liberatore and Scott, but there’s still potential value in doing so. With Donovan off to a red-hot start, the team may have already missed the best opportunity to secure him long-term. As for Herrera and Winn, now is the time to strike on extensions. All of this suggests that Arenado—who’s currently batting just .228—may be more expendable than previously assumed.
Heading into Tuesday’s matchup with the Kansas City Royals, the Cardinals hold a solid 33–26 record.
What kind of team could be interested in trading for Nolan Arenado?
Like his former Cardinals teammate Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado has accomplished just about everything in his career—except winning a World Series. Although he’s a bit younger than Goldschmidt, Arenado still hasn’t been part of a truly championship-caliber team. His time with the Rockies speaks for itself, and up until this season, the Cardinals hadn’t been living up to expectations either.
For a trade to happen, the right circumstances would need to arise—perhaps a contending team in the American League loses its starting third baseman. A trade within the National League might be too risky, especially with Arenado still under contract for several more years. The Cardinals likely wouldn’t get a huge return, but it could be more about clearing his salary than maximizing value.
While MLB doesn’t have a salary cap, it’s not sustainable to keep paying aging players like Arenado top dollar. He probably still has a few productive seasons ahead, but his prime may be behind him. A fresh start might be what he needs to finally win that elusive championship ring. Though the Cardinals could still contend for the playoffs, it’s unclear if they’re strong enough to take the National League crown.
Moving Arenado would be a bold and controversial move, but if it creates financial room for key contract extensions, it might be a decision worth considering.
