Since superstar third baseman Nolan Arenado joined the St. Louis Cardinals, the team has largely fallen short of expectations. Considering his age, salary, and the current direction of the organization, it felt almost certain that Arenado wouldn’t be with the team in 2025.
The Cardinals made a serious effort to trade him this past offseason, with the Houston Astros emerging as their only real suitor. However, just as a deal was close to being finalized, Arenado used his full no-trade clause to block it, throwing the team’s offseason plans into disarray. Ultimately, St. Louis held on to the eight-time All-Star — a decision that has looked fortunate so far, as the Cardinals are now just 2.5 games behind the Cubs in the NL Central after a surprisingly strong start.
But is that truly the best outcome? With the trade deadline approaching, rumors about Arenado’s future are heating up once again. After Tuesday night’s dramatic win over Chicago, Arenado tried to shut down the chatter. Still, despite the current optimism at Busch Stadium, the Cardinals may come to regret how everything has unfolded in recent months.
Nolan Arenado shuts down trade talks
Few could have predicted it, but the St. Louis Cardinals are 44–36 after winning the first two games of their rivalry series against the Cubs and currently hold an NL Wild Card spot. This unexpected surge has reinvigorated Nolan Arenado’s belief in the team. All the third baseman ever wanted was a shot at competing for a World Series, and now that he’s finally in that position, he seems more committed than ever to staying put.
Following Tuesday’s win, Arenado spoke candidly about how this season has exceeded his expectations. MLB.com’s John Denton reported his post-game reflections.
“I didn’t expect us to be winning like this at this point,” Arenado admitted. “I knew we’d play hard, that we’d be strong defensively, and I believed in our pitching. But I love playing meaningful baseball, where every game matters. I’ve already had individual success in my career — now I want to achieve something with a team. I want to win a World Series. Games like these make it easy to show up to the ballpark. I haven’t felt this excited to come to work in nearly two years.”
Arenado has always prioritized playoff contention — it’s what prompted his move from the Colorado Rockies to St. Louis. With the Cardinals finally giving him a taste of postseason potential, there seems little reason for him to consider a move, even if team president John Mozeliak thought it best for the organization. Does he sound like someone ready to waive his no-trade clause?
As long as the Cardinals remain in the race, trading Arenado feels increasingly unlikely. At this point, their strong performance can no longer be dismissed as a fluke. That’s welcome news for a fanbase starved for success after two underwhelming seasons — though it does raise long-term questions about the club’s direction.
Keeping Nolan Arenado could come back to haunt the Cardinals
This may not be the ideal moment to bring it up—especially with the Cardinals having just secured back-to-back wins against the division-leading Cubs—but it’s difficult to see this team mounting a serious challenge against the likes of Chicago, the Dodgers, Phillies, or any of the National League’s elite come October. The pitching staff has started to regress, and while the offense has helped pick up the slack, the team still feels more like a middle-tier contender than a true powerhouse.
That leaves John Mozeliak in a tough spot as the trade deadline approaches. Making a big push by sacrificing future assets would be risky, maybe even reckless, considering the long-term outlook. But with the Cardinals currently in the thick of the playoff race, opting to sell could trigger backlash from the fanbase—especially since one of their most valuable trade pieces has just made it clear he has no intention of waiving his no-trade clause.
If the front office could speak freely, they might admit they’d love to shed a large chunk of Nolan Arenado’s remaining salary. St. Louis has no shortage of infield talent waiting in the wings, and while Arenado is still a dependable everyday player, he’s being paid like a franchise cornerstone. Moving his contract would open up payroll flexibility and give more opportunities to young talent like Thomas Saggese, the red-hot Nolan Gorman, and top prospect JJ Wetherholt. They might even land a prospect or two in return—setting the stage for a stronger 2026. But sometimes an unexpected winning stretch puts a team in a bind.