The St. Louis Cardinals’ approach to this year’s trade deadline remains a mystery. They’re still in the postseason picture as June wraps up, but John Mozeliak faces a tricky balancing act — weighing the team’s current competitiveness, the development of young players, the organization’s future after his tenure, and his own legacy. That’s no simple feat.
Nonetheless, trade speculation surrounding the Cardinals has been circulating widely.
Jim Bowden of The Athletic recently proposed impact trades for every National League Wild Card contender — and the Cardinals were included.
Bowden’s suggestion? St. Louis deals third baseman Nolan Arenado and closer Ryan Helsley, along with some cash, to the Detroit Tigers in exchange for top prospect Kevin McGonigle.
Would I bet on this trade actually happening if the Cardinals are still in the Wild Card mix? Not really. It’s unlikely Helsley would be dealt while the team is contending, and Arenado — who has a full no-trade clause — probably wouldn’t waive it to join a team that wasn’t on his original list.
Still, if St. Louis were to part with Arenado, Helsley, and cash, this is the kind of return that could be considered a win for everyone involved.
Arenado might not be the hitter he once was, but his defense remains elite. He ranks third among MLB third basemen in Outs Above Average (3) and seventh in Defensive Runs Saved (4). Though his 98 wRC+ is slightly below average, his power numbers have improved from last season. He’s slugging .405 with a .154 ISO and is tied for the team lead with 10 home runs.
Helsley, on the other hand, hasn’t been quite as sharp this year. The two-time All-Star and franchise single-season saves leader owns a 3.67 ERA — his highest since 2021. He’s recorded 14 saves, but his strikeout rate has dipped to 26.9%. Opposing batters are hitting .255 off him, and he’s giving up 1.33 home runs per nine innings while walking more than 10% of hitters. His fastball has been hit hard all season, which has contributed to his struggles.
Despite this, Bowden believes the Cardinals could still land a top-50 prospect in return for Helsley and Arenado, provided they include financial flexibility. “Arenado would have to waive his no-trade clause, and the Cardinals would likely need to absorb a large portion of his contract,” Bowden notes. “But even covering the entire salary would be worth it to acquire McGonigle.”
While it’s unlikely the DeWitt family would take on the full remaining $52 million on Arenado’s deal, offseason reports suggested the Cardinals were willing to cover about $20 million. If they can strike a similar agreement, Detroit might be open to it.
In Bowden’s proposal, St. Louis receives infielder Kevin McGonigle, Detroit’s No. 2 prospect per MLB Pipeline and the 22nd-ranked prospect overall. Drafted 37th overall in 2023, the 20-year-old primarily plays shortstop but has also seen time at second base.
Understandably, some might question whether the Cardinals need another middle infielder, given that Masyn Winn is the future at shortstop and 2024 first-rounder JJ Wetherholt is also on the way. But acquiring a top-25 prospect is rarely a bad idea. Teams like the Padres have shown that accumulating athletic shortstops can pay off, and either Wetherholt or McGonigle could shift positions.
McGonigle, a left-handed hitter, is known for his polished bat. After just six games at Low-A to begin the year, he earned a promotion to High-A, where he’s hitting a scorching .394/.479/.717 with five home runs and 28 RBIs. He’s also walked more than he’s struck out during his professional career.
Dealing Arenado would free up playing time for Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, Thomas Saggese, and Jordan Walker. Losing Helsley would be harder to absorb, but the Cardinals have some bullpen depth that could help fill the void.
Letting go of both Arenado and Helsley would be tough if the Cardinals are still in playoff contention. But if Mozeliak is thinking long-term rather than just finishing 2025 strong, this is exactly the kind of move that could set the organization up for sustained success.