Free agency is officially underway—though only in a limited form—and that limited window benefited the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday afternoon when they signed right-handed pitcher Keegan Thompson to a one-year major league deal. Thompson was already eligible to sign since he didn’t appear in the majors during the 2025 season and wasn’t on the Chicago Cubs’ 40-man roster, allowing him to elect free agency in mid-October. According to Mark Sheldon of Reds.com, Thompson will earn $1.3 million if he stays in the majors all year or $350,000 on a prorated minor league basis.
The 30-year-old reliever, who turns 31 soon, pitched for the Cubs between 2021 and 2024 and was productive in three of those four seasons. He posted a 3.38 ERA in 53.1 innings as a rookie in 2021 and followed that with a 3.76 ERA over 115 innings in 2022. His performance dipped in 2023 with a 4.71 ERA in 28.2 innings but rebounded in 2024 when he delivered a 2.67 ERA across 30.1 innings.
Thompson didn’t make Chicago’s 2025 Opening Day roster and was designated for assignment. After clearing waivers, he spent the entire season at Triple-A Iowa, where he logged 64 innings, including five starts, with a 4.50 ERA. He gave up 65 hits, walked 25 batters, hit eight more, and struck out 83. The strikeout numbers were encouraging, but his 33 combined walks and hit batters were concerning. Despite the Cubs using 31 pitchers (plus two position players) in 2025, Thompson never got a call-up—an indication that Chicago had lost confidence in his ability to stick in the bullpen, possibly compounded by his lack of minor league options.
His fastball velocity has slightly declined over time, from averaging 94 mph in 2021 to 93.0 mph in 2025. He’s also thrown it less frequently, down from about 46% usage during 2021–2023 to 32% in 2025. Early in 2025, his velocity averaged just 92.4 mph through May before improving to 93.7 mph the rest of the way.
Throughout his big-league career, Thompson has maintained a low batting average on balls in play (BABIP), ranging from .229 to .282, with a career mark of .266. At Triple-A in 2025, however, his BABIP spiked to .367—one likely reason for his inflated ERA. That could have been due to bad luck, poor defense, or inconsistency on his part. His average exit velocity allowed (88.2 mph) suggests hitters weren’t consistently making hard contact, and while his average launch angle (15.2°) was the highest of his career, it probably only partly explains the higher BABIP.
Given that Thompson still struck out plenty of hitters and wasn’t giving up unusually hard contact, the Reds appear to be betting that the high BABIP was an anomaly. If his luck normalizes, there’s reason to believe he can return to being an effective reliever in 2026.
Still, there’s some risk involved. Since Thompson is out of minor league options, Cincinnati can’t send him down if he struggles. Spring training performance isn’t always predictive, especially in Arizona’s dry air, where breaking pitches don’t move the same. If his 2025 issues linger, the Reds could be forced to make a quick decision once the season starts.
On the bright side, his salary is low, minimizing financial risk. If he falters, the team can move on easily; if he rediscovers his old form, the contract could turn out to be a bargain.