It’s hard to criticize the Philadelphia Phillies’ starting rotation at the moment. Their 3.47 ERA among starters ranks fifth in MLB, and they’re dominating the league in strikeouts—so much so that the gap between them and the second-place Royals is as wide as the gap between Kansas City and the seventh-place Diamondbacks.
However, those impressive numbers hide a significant weak spot: veteran right-hander Aaron Nola. On Wednesday night against the St. Louis Cardinals, Nola was shelled for nine runs on 12 hits over just 3.2 innings, managing only two strikeouts in a rough outing. His season ERA has ballooned to 6.16, and neither he nor the team seems to have a clear explanation for his struggles. “I don’t really have another answer for tonight, besides: ‘Terrible,’” Nola admitted after the game.
On its own, Nola’s struggles wouldn’t be overly alarming. After all, Philadelphia’s rotation has been outstanding this season, with Zack Wheeler, Jesús Luzardo, and Cristopher Sánchez forming a formidable trio that can compete with any in the league. Ranger Suárez has also returned from the injured list, and top prospects Mick Abel and Andrew Painter provide additional options that Dave Dombrowski could turn to later in the year.
The real issue, though, is that Philly’s pitching depth won’t mean much if the team insists on sticking with Nola despite mounting evidence that he’s not getting the job done. At 32, Nola has overcome slumps in the past, and his history does buy him some patience. Still, if he fails to improve, the team will need to make some difficult decisions — ones that manager Rob Thomson doesn’t appear ready to confront.
Rob Thomson’s faith in Aaron Nola could come back to haunt Phillies
Arguably more troubling than Nola’s final stat line on Wednesday was how long he was left on the mound. The Phillies’ offense had given him a 5-1 cushion early, and even though it was the second game of a doubleheader, the bullpen was still in good shape thanks to Luzardo’s seven-inning effort earlier in the day. Yet manager Rob Thomson stuck with his veteran, allowing the game to unravel before finally taking him out — but not until the Cardinals had already taken the lead.
“With him, you always think he’s going to figure it out,” Thomson told The Athletic. “And we’re still in the game.”
That’s technically true, but based on Nola’s performance so far this season, there’s been little evidence to suggest he was close to turning a corner — and being “in the game” isn’t a solid enough reason to let your starter get shelled. Still, Thomson isn’t expressing any doubt.
“No,” he responded when asked if he was concerned. “Because I think he’ll figure it out. You have to trust he’ll work through it. And he will.”
That mindset is understandable in mid-May — the Phillies need Nola, and he’s earned some leeway. But one of the consistent criticisms of Thomson is his unwavering loyalty to his players and his hesitancy to stray from his initial beliefs. The real question is, what happens if Nola is still struggling down the stretch? Will Thomson make the tough call — whether that means pulling Nola from the rotation or giving him a shorter leash? Or will he prioritize seniority over performance, ignoring other viable arms? If he picks wrong and the Phillies fall short again in October, it could cost him his job.