For the second consecutive offseason, Nolan Arenado once again finds himself in the center of swirling speculation. Just a year ago he was viewed as the player most likely to be moved. Even after he rejected a proposed trade to the Houston Astros, the belief around the league was that a separation between him and the St. Louis Cardinals was only a matter of time.
Now the situation has taken on a different tone. Instead of being a valuable but movable star, Arenado has become the franchise’s most complicated issue. The eight time All Star is 34, and conversations throughout the league have shifted from whether the Cardinals will trade him to whether it is time for the team to walk away altogether.
This discussion became louder during Sunday’s edition of MLB Network Radio’s program The Front Office. Former general manager Jim Bowden was direct with his assessment. He said he admired Arenado as both a player and a person, but he believed the relationship between the third baseman and the Cardinals had reached its natural end. Bowden pointed to a three year decline that has left Arenado’s performance far below the value of his contract. Co host Jim Duquette agreed and noted that rival teams understand St. Louis is eager to move on. Because of that, many front offices prefer to simply wait the Cardinals out rather than surrender meaningful pieces to acquire him.
Arenado is still owed thirty two million dollars over the next two seasons, and that figure does not include the portion of his salary the Colorado Rockies continue to pay. He chose not to exercise his opt out clause following the 2022 season, which once appeared to cement a team friendly deal. Today, that agreement is viewed as one of the more burdensome long term commitments on the club’s payroll.
His decline on the field has been gradual but unmistakable. After delivering an MVP caliber campaign in 2022, his offensive output regressed to league average levels in 2023 and 2024. His 2025 performance was even more concerning. A batting line of .237 with a .289 on base percentage, a .377 slugging percentage, just twelve home runs, and a .666 OPS in 107 games represented his weakest full season in the majors. Advanced metrics reinforced the downturn. His average exit velocity dropped to 86.8 miles per hour, his hard hit percentage settled around thirty two percent, and his barrel rate fell below four percent. Those numbers reflect more than a routine slump; they mirror the effects of age and physical wear.
Injuries have also contributed. Persistent shoulder issues and ongoing back discomfort hampered him in both 2024 and 2025, and the power that once defined his game has not returned. Scouts who previously viewed him as a premier third baseman now see a diminishing everyday player.
For Chaim Bloom, the new head of baseball operations who already traded Sonny Gray as part of a reset, Arenado’s contract restricts roster flexibility and payroll planning. The Cardinals are reducing spending for the 2026 season, yet Arenado remains one of their largest commitments. Bloom needs to create opportunities for younger hitters, and Bowden stressed that Arenado cannot be allowed to block their development.
Arenado’s full no trade clause and limited market interest complicate attempts to find a trade partner. That is why some around the league believe St. Louis may ultimately choose to absorb the remaining cost of his deal and release him, allowing him to pursue a fresh start elsewhere. Duquette suggested the club might give him a chance to reestablish himself in spring training, but if the struggles continue, the organization may decide that parting ways is the cleanest and most practical option.