Each offseason, MLB Trade Rumors releases extremely useful arbitration projections for all 30 teams. For the St. Louis Cardinals, there are numerous players to evaluate when it comes to offering contracts, heading to arbitration, or potentially non-tendering them.
This year, nine Cardinals are eligible for arbitration: Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, Matthew Liberatore, JoJo Romero, Alec Burleson, Nolan Gorman, John King, Andre Pallante, and Jorge Alcala. Some of these players are viewed as core pieces for the future, others serve more as temporary contributors, and a few find themselves in uncertain territory regarding their role with the organization.
I’m going to break down each player on this list and place them into one of three categories:
Players the team should take to arbitration or settle with on a one-year contract.
Players the Cardinals should pursue for long-term extensions.
Players the club should strongly consider non-tendering this offseason.
With those categories in mind, let’s dive in and evaluate how I believe the Cardinals should handle each of these names heading into the winter.
Right away, I don’t see a compelling reason for the Cardinals to retain John King or Jorge Alcala at their projected arbitration salaries.
King, acquired in the Jordan Montgomery/Chris Stratton trade at the 2023 deadline, has been a useful bullpen arm at times, but he’s coming off a rough season that more closely matched his underlying metrics. In 51 outings, he posted a 4.66 ERA and 5.00 FIP across 48.1 innings, resulting in a -0.4 fWAR. FanGraphs’ “Dollars” metric valued him at – $3.5 million in 2025, and he’s never provided more than $2 million in on-field value during his tenure with St. Louis. With a projected arbitration salary of $2.1 million and just one minor-league option remaining, he doesn’t offer much long-term roster flexibility. Unless he agrees to a significant pay cut, bringing him back doesn’t make much sense.
Alcala is in a similar situation. He has no options left and is also projected to earn $2.1 million. His 6.22 ERA over 56 appearances with the Twins, Red Sox, and Cardinals in 2025 hardly inspires confidence. While he was effective in prior years—most notably a 3.24 ERA in 54 games in 2024—he has rarely produced even $2 million in value in any season and was a negative asset this year.
Take last offseason as an example: the Cardinals signed Phil Maton for $2 million, and that move paid off big-time. While you can’t assume they’ll find another All-Star-level reliever at that price, I’d still rather take two low-risk free-agent flyers on veterans than commit $2+ million each to King and Alcala again.