The Philadelphia Phillies have been peaking at the appropriate time. They won the National League East for the second year in a row, have practically locked up the No. 2 slot (magic number is two), and still have a slim chance of passing the Milwaukee Brewers for the top NL spot (three games behind).
Their two biggest trade acquisitions, closer Jhoan Duran and center fielder Harrison Bader, have been outstanding. These two have significantly enhanced the bullpen and outfield offenses. Kyle Schwarber is a potential MVP candidate. Cristopher Sanchez has developed as one of baseball’s best pitchers. Trea Turner has having his greatest season with the Phillies since earning his mega-contract.
However, the Phillies continue to struggle as the season approaches October. And that is why, Phillies fans, you will not be able to enjoy a World Series parade this fall. Here are four reasons why Philly will not win the championship this season.
No Zack Wheeler
How can the Phillies win a World Series without their ace? Zack Wheeler will miss the rest of the season after doctors discovered a blood clot near his right pitching shoulder. Wheeler has dominated in October. In 12 playoff starts, he has a 2.18 ERA and 77 strikeouts over 70 1/3 innings. According to Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer, only one Phillies starter other than Wheeler has gone at least six innings in their last 15 postseason games. It will be extremely tough for the Phillies to make it through the playoffs without one of the top three pitchers in the game today.
No Jose Alvarado
Aside from Wheeler, the Phillies will be without high-leverage lefty reliever Jose Alvarado. He is ineligible to pitch in the postseason after serving an 80-game PED suspension earlier this year. Without Alvarado, the Phillies lose a strikeout pitcher who throws in the upper 90s, so others will have to step up in important moments to put out fires with runners on base. Orion Kerkering has been roughed up this year, Matt Strahm has allowed more hits and walks per nine innings than in his 2024 All-Star season, and David Robertson has struggled to pitch on back-to-back days, posting a 7.36 ERA in September. The Phillies have an exceptional closer in Duran, but they must get to him first with a lead.
Same Old Offense
The Phillies offensive is virtually the same as it was in the 2023 National League Championship Series against the Arizona Diamondbacks and the 2024 National League Division Series against the New York Mets. Bryce Harper and company scored just three runs combined at home in Games 6 and 7 of the NLCS, falling to Arizona after leading 2-0 and 3-2 in the series. It was even worse versus their National League East rivals last year, when they hit just.186 with a.597 OPS and scored only 12 runs — seven of which came in Game 2 of their 3-1 NLDS loss to the Mets. If the Phillies fail to capitalize with runners in scoring position in October and are unable to score, Citizens Bank Park will become increasingly anxious. Another fast exit would occur.
Nick Castellanos and Max Kepler Will Have Critical At-Bats
Imagine this scenario: There are two outs in the bottom of the eighth. The Phillies have runners on second and third and are behind 4-3. Nick Castellanos, who has a 91 OPS+ this season and an exceptionally low 40.7% chase rate, is up. Do you really expect him to come through in the clutch?
The same concerns apply to Max Kepler. Despite improving his OPS since August 1 to.797, he is only hitting.217 this season with an OPS+ of 88.
These two players will have key at-bats next month. Given their performance this season, it’s difficult to see them coming through when the team needs them the most.