The St. Louis Cardinals find themselves stuck in a tricky spot as the trade deadline approaches. They’re still in the playoff race — only 6.5 games behind the division-leading Cubs and just 1.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot. However, the team entered the season expecting that the transition from John Mozeliak to Chaim Bloom might involve trading away players who don’t factor into their long-term plans. Now, they’re facing the consequences of their indecision, particularly regarding star closer.
Mozeliak had opportunities to deal top star at last year’s deadline or during the offseason before the 2025 campaign — his final year before free agency. But for whatever reason, he held on to him. As a result, the Cardinals may have squandered one of their most valuable trade chips.
There’s still a chance they move him — insiders have floated the possibility — and strong demand for relievers means they could land a respectable prospect package. Still, given the context, it’s hard to see a scenario where the Cardinals walk away from this feeling like they truly came out ahead.
Even though relief pitchers are in high demand, teams looking to buy at the deadline are typically hesitant to give up significant assets for a rental player they could lose to free agency a few months later. That fact alone puts the Cardinals in a difficult position. If they choose to hold onto Ryan Helsley and let him leave in free agency, the compensatory draft pick they’d receive might be roughly equivalent in value to the type of prospect they’d get in a trade — making either option feel like a wash.
So, you might think the smarter move is to just keep Helsley and take the draft pick. And honestly, that might be the most logical path forward. But there are two major factors to consider. First, Helsley hasn’t been as dominant this season as he was in the past. He currently holds a 3.27 ERA, a 3.84 FIP, and a 1.424 WHIP — the latter of which would be the worst mark of his career. Simply put, he hasn’t been the elite, shutdown closer the Cardinals have come to rely on over the last three seasons.
Second, the true value of a top-tier closer comes when a team is firmly in contention. While the Cardinals are still in the playoff picture, they sit just outside a Wild Card spot coming out of the All-Star break. There’s also a case to be made that St. Louis has been outperforming expectations, and if they regress in the second half, holding onto Helsley might look questionable — at the very least, it could be a tough sell to fans and critics.
Ideally, the Cardinals would hop in a time machine, send Mozeliak back to last year’s trade deadline, and have him deal Helsley when his value was at its peak.
But since that’s obviously not possible, the Cardinals are stuck. Unless a contending team unexpectedly overpays for Helsley or St. Louis makes a serious playoff push, any decision they make regarding their closer is likely to draw criticism. And that’s far from the ideal position to be in.