It is commonly known that where there is smoke, there is fire. Well, the offseason air in Queens is becoming very heavy.
The talk surrounding a prospective New York Mets trade for Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal has reached a near-constant boil. But is there really a fire under all that smoke, or is it just the normal offseason heat from talk shows and Twitter threads?
Tim Kelly of Bleacher Report believes there is more to it. In a Monday piece titled “6 Bold MLB 2025-26 Offseason Predictions,” Kelly predicts that Detroit will deal Skubal to the Mets.
MLB Analysts Tab Mets as ‘Most Obvious Suitor’ for Detroit Ace Tarik Skubal
Kelly quotes a recent claim from Jon Heyman of The New York Post, who indicated that sources believe there is a “close to $250 million” disparity between Skubal’s contract extension request and what the Tigers are now willing to pay him. While Kelly believes that Tigers owner Chris Ilitch should “spend whatever exorbitant amount it takes to keep the top pitcher in the sport in Motown,” $250 million is a significant difference, and Cody Stavenhagen, Tigers beat writer for The Athletic, believes the two sides are too far apart.
“From all the signs, from all we know, the idea of an extension probably just isn’t happening, and I think that’s the more important takeaway regardless of whatever number, whatever framing is kind of in some of these other headlines,” Stavenhagen said in an interview with the “Tiger Territory” radio program.
So it may just be a matter of how long Detroit is willing to wait before moving the left-handed starter, who is likely to win his second consecutive AL Cy Young Award after going 13-6 with a 2.21 ERA and 241 strikeouts in 195.1 innings. Kelly has some views about who Skubal should be traded to.
“The team that would make the most sense for Skubal in an offseason trade is the New York Mets,” he said. “Not only do they have an owner in Steve Cohen who will probably be willing to meet the asking price of Skubal and agent Scott Boras next offseason, but they have a major need for an ace in 2026 and pieces that could be of interest to the Tigers in return.”
Stavenhagen also believes the Mets make sense as a potential trade partner.
“Just looking at some of the farm systems across the game, I think the Mets do strike me as the most obvious suitor,” he told ESPN.
Stavenhagen went on to recommend a package of pitchers Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat, as well as middle infielder Jett Williams, the Mets’ Nos. 3-5 prospects, which he feels would provide “a pretty good baseline” for what the Tigers may acquire in exchange for Skubal.
In an episode of SNY-TV’s “The Mets Pod,” Connor Rogers and Joe DeMayo staged a simulated trade negotiation to examine prospective packages for Skubal. Rogers, assuming the role of the Mets front office, coincidentally offered the same proposal, but only if the Mets are assured that they can sign Skubal to an extension. As a rental, he would be wary of trading both pitchers, knowing Skubal might walk at the conclusion of the season.
Insiders Suggest Package of Prospects Tong, Sprout, Williams for Tarik Skubal
So, where does this leave the Mets? Somewhere between potential and excess.
Skubal is more than simply a name on the market; he’s the type of player who can turn a team around overnight. He’s 28, a lefty with excellent command and a fastball that can go anywhere. With a rotation in urgent need of identity and leadership, it’s no surprise that the Mets are being linked to him in every whisper and think piece.
However, significant swings have implications, especially if you’re still rebuilding the lowest portion of your agricultural system. Tong, Sproat, and Williams embody the type of internal capital that can maintain success rather than chase it. And, while Cohen’s checkbook can solve many issues, it cannot compensate for years of growth if the wrong prospects leave.
Nonetheless, this is the type of myth that refuses to go quietly. It’s rational, glamorous, and fits the contemporary Mets narrative: an organization attempting to match billionaire ambition with the slow burn of baseball reality. If the Tigers are actually unable to fill the $250 million gap, someone will ultimately come calling.
Perhaps the person wears orange and blue.
Until then, it’s just speculation—smoke without fire. However, Queens residents have discovered that smoke might be the first indicator that something huge is about to burn.