Everything coming out of St. Louis implies that the Cardinals are nearing a watershed moment in their history. They are undergoing what may be a multi-year rebuilding process, focusing on player development rather than short-term success. That has been the case for nearly a year, but all indications are that the club will shift its focus even farther in that direction. According to Katie Woo of The Athletic, ownership will now be more ready to eat money in transactions in order to maximize profits.
That story is consistent with statements made this week by Chaim Bloom, the new president of baseball operations. “As far as cash being a lever on the trade front, that should never be off the table,” he remarked, according to Woo. “Obviously, you’d prefer not to do that, but you could end up in a situation where adding cash to make a preferred deal work just makes sense.”
Bloom’s comments and Woo’s reports on ownership suggest that the franchise is on the same page. That should only add to the perception that high-paid players like Nolan Arenado and Sonny Gray are more likely to be traded this offseason than they were last winter.
The Cards announced a year ago that they will begin their reset phase. This initially suggested that senior players like as Arenado, Gray, and Willson Contreras may be viable trade targets. However, Gray and Contreras swiftly expressed their desire to remain in St. Louis. Arenado was more receptive to a trade, although he had a short list of five teams he regarded viable landing locations and was ultimately not transferred.
The club’s rebuilding plans appear to be more solidly in place, and both Arenado and Gray have openly shown a willingness to waive their no-trade rights this time. Contreras appears to be less interested in leaving, although he has not ruled out the option.
That’s a solid start for the Cardinals, but consuming money will help them close deals. Gray is still a competent pitcher who recently finished a solid season, despite his mediocre earned run average. Though he allowed 4.28 earned runs per nine over 180 2/3 innings, his.329 batting average on balls in play likely inflated that figure slightly. His 26.7% strikeout rate, 5% walk rate, and 43.9% ground ball rate were all impressive. ERA estimators, like as his 3.39 FIP and 3.29 SIERA, imply that he was closer to his previous self than the ERA suggests.
Even if teams are prepared to ignore the ERA, the contract remains an impediment. His three-year, $75 million contract with the Cardinals was substantially backloaded. He earned merely $10 million in 2024 and $25 million this year. He will then earn $35 million next year, followed by a $5 million buyout of a $30 million club option. If Gray selects that option, he may then opt out.
At this time, the contract has only one more guaranteed season remaining, with $40MM yet to be paid out. Because of the opt-out, the option provides little additional benefit. Regardless of Gray’s abilities, $40 million for one year of a pitcher is a lot. Ace pitchers have historically had an average yearly value of this magnitude. Even if the price for Gray’s services was reasonable, swallowing more money to extract more potential capital is a prudent strategy for a team committed on the long term.
Arenado will earn $27MM next year, with the Rockies paying $5MM and the remaining $6MM deferred. He will then earn $15 million in 2027. That equates to less than $20 million each year, but his worth has plummeted following a string of poor seasons. This year, he batted just.237/.289/.377 for a wRC+ of 84, after being slightly over league average the previous two seasons. He still receives outstanding evaluations for his glovework, but he is no longer an MVP candidate.
Other clubs will have different expectations for him moving forward, but as Gray stated, any money that the Cardinals are ready to eat should raise what teams are willing to give up.
As previously stated, a deal with Contreras is unlikely before considering the money, but it is still possible. He is still owed $41.5 million for the next two years. That’s a $18MM salary next year, $18.5MM in 2027, and a $5MM buyout on a $17.5MM club option in 2028.’
He has been shifted from catcher to first base. This year, he had good evaluations for his glovework, earning six Outs Above Average, but his Defensive Runs Saved were merely -1. His bat is still powerful, as he hit.257/.344/.447 this year for a 124 wRC+. Those are all similar to his career averages, which include a.258/.352/.459 hitting line and 122 wRC+.
Even though he is entering his 34th season, the deal is not awful. Christian Walker recently received $60 million over three years from the Astros as he enters his age-34 season. Even if the Contreras contract isn’t underwater, other clubs may not be willing to pay much for it until the Cards reduce the price.
Last winter, the Cards appeared to be more driven by salary relief. When they agreed to a deal with the Astros, Arenado owed them around $60MM over three years. Arenado refused the agreement, but reports said the Cards would only pay roughly $5MM each season, putting the Astros on the hook for about $45MM. It is unclear what the Cards would get in that transaction, but it was most certainly a payroll dump move. Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. subsequently stated that if Arenado was not moved, they would have to make cutbacks elsewhere, although this did not really happen.
According to RosterResource, the Cardinals had a $144 million salary in 2025. They are expected to earn only $75 million next year as a result of several deals and contract expirations. Arbitration salaries for players such as Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar might raise that figure, but those players are also potential trade targets this winter. Perhaps the Cards’ reduced payroll allowed them to focus less on cost cuts this time around, increasing their chances of adding valuable young talent to their pipeline.
There will be non-payroll expenses, however. According to Woo, the club plans to increase its efforts in analytics, player development, and scouting. There is also significant ambiguity about the club’s television agreement. The Cards have negotiated a new arrangement with Main Street Sports, formerly known as Diamond Sports Group, to join the FanDuel Sports Network in 2025. Woo notes that the contract has option provisions after each season. She thinks that no big changes are planned, but some renegotiations may take place.