The final stretch of John Mozeliak’s tenure as president of baseball operations for the St. Louis Cardinals has been marred by a series of missteps, chief among them his reluctance to move players while their trade value was at its peak.
For any general manager or POBO, knowing when to trade a productive player is a delicate balancing act. When a player is performing at his highest level, he’s likely providing strong on-field value — the kind you don’t want to lose. But holding on too long comes with a cost, as a player’s market value tends to decline with age, injuries, and proximity to free agency.
Mozeliak’s hesitation in this regard proved costly. Rather than dealing players like Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Hicks, and Ryan Helsley at the height of their value, he waited until their stock had fallen, ultimately receiving minimal returns. An earlier move could have replenished the organization’s farm system with promising talent.
The past three seasons in St. Louis have been underwhelming. The Cardinals haven’t reached the postseason since 2022, and the team’s ceiling has looked limited for some time. With Nolan Arenado’s decline, Paul Goldschmidt’s departure, and ownership intent on cutting payroll, the club’s competitive window has clearly closed.
In theory, such a downturn should have prompted Mozeliak to aggressively trade valuable veterans to accelerate a rebuild. Instead, he tried to maintain a middle ground — attempting both a “retool” and a push for contention — leaving the Cardinals stuck in baseball’s no-man’s-land: not bad enough to rebuild, but not good enough to contend.
Opportunities were missed. Goldschmidt could have been dealt at the 2023 trade deadline for a substantial prospect haul. Helsley might have brought a strong return in 2024, when it was obvious the team wasn’t a legitimate playoff threat. Even JoJo Romero could have fetched solid assets this year.
But Mozeliak stayed the course, holding onto players past their peak and reaping little in return — a pattern that has only deepened the stagnation surrounding the franchise. And now, one more player the Cardinals failed to move may soon serve as yet another reminder of the cost of inaction.
Lars Nootbaar’s injury history and underperformance in 2025 prove that John Mozeliak and the St. Louis Cardinals should have traded him after the 2024 season.
Let’s start by acknowledging that hindsight always offers perfect clarity. It’s never easy to decide to trade a player performing at his peak, but when a team is trending downward in its competitive cycle, those are precisely the moments when moving players at peak value becomes necessary.
Between 2022 and 2024, Lars Nootbaar was a productive outfielder for St. Louis, posting a .246/.351/.426 slash line and averaging 3.4 bWAR per 162 games—a performance level that would make him a quality starter for most major league clubs. His biggest issue, however, was durability. His 503 plate appearances in 2023 marked a career high, underscoring a recurring struggle to stay healthy. When available, Nootbaar was an asset, and his advanced metrics after 2024 provided reasons for optimism.
His hard-contact rate, walk rate, and chase rate aligned with elite hitters such as Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Shohei Ohtani. While he wasn’t in their tier statistically, his approach at the plate mirrored theirs in discipline and contact quality.
Heading into 2025, both Nootbaar and the Cardinals hoped he could finally stay healthy and turn his underlying strengths into sustained production. In what was considered a transitional season for the organization, his development carried particular importance.
Unfortunately, he fell short of expectations. Nootbaar ended the year hitting .234/.325/.361 with a .686 OPS. His walk rate dropped to 11%, and he struck out 20.4% of the time. After an encouraging start that included a .839 OPS and 140 wRC+ through March and April, he failed to post an OPS above .734 in any subsequent month.
Ironically, he managed to stay healthy—appearing in 135 games and recording 583 plate appearances—but couldn’t take advantage of the consistent playing time to establish himself as a reliable corner outfielder.
To make matters worse, Nootbaar underwent surgery to remove Haglund’s deformities from his heel, a procedure known for its uncertain and often lengthy recovery timeline. It’s yet another setback in a career repeatedly hampered by injuries.
Entering 2025, everyone knew Nootbaar carried an injury-prone label, but there was still hope that this would be the season he put it all together. He stayed on the field, but the performance didn’t follow. As a result, the Cardinals once again find themselves facing the familiar consequence of holding onto a player past his prime trade window.
With free agency looming after the 2027 season, Nootbaar’s period of team control is dwindling fast. His disappointing 2025 campaign and the subsequent surgery have drastically diminished his trade value. The Cardinals are now left with two unappealing options: keep him and hope he rebounds, or sell low.
It’s unfortunate that Nootbaar hasn’t managed to pair health and productivity in the same year since 2023. The Cardinals waited too long to move their international outfielder, and they’re now paying the price—a recurring theme for the organization as it embarks on a new chapter under Chaim Bloom’s leadership.