Paul Finebaum has voiced real concern about where Auburn’s 2026 season could be headed if new head coach Alex Golesh fails to win his very first game. A loss to Baylor in the season opener, Finebaum believes, could derail the Tigers before they ever reach SEC play.
That opener will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, a neutral-site setting that strips Auburn of a true home-field advantage. While Auburn fans are expected to show up in force and the Tigers are currently favored to win comfortably, Finebaum worries that an early stumble would create negative momentum heading into a demanding stretch that includes Florida at home, followed by road trips to Tennessee and Georgia.
Finebaum pointed to Auburn’s recent past as a warning sign. Hugh Freeze beat Baylor last season, but that victory ultimately didn’t translate into long-term success. His message was blunt: losing that same game now, with Florida arriving just two weeks later and back-to-back road games against Tennessee and Georgia looming, would be disastrous.
Even though Florida and Tennessee are expected to break in young quarterbacks—potentially favorable matchups for Auburn—the broader anxiety is understandable. If the Tigers can’t get past Baylor, optimism for the rest of the season would be hard to find. Baylor has struggled defensively for years, and under Dave Aranda the Bears have failed to field a consistently stout unit. In 2025, Baylor ranked near the bottom nationally, giving up more than 32 points per game.
If Auburn were to lose to Baylor, especially if the Bears’ defense suddenly looks much improved, it would reignite a familiar and uncomfortable question: is Auburn stuck in a cycle where even offensive-minded coaches can’t unlock a truly explosive offense?
At the same time, Week 1 may not dramatically shift the narrative even if Auburn wins. Unless Golesh’s offense delivers a historic, eye-popping performance, skepticism will linger. Auburn has been here before. A Power Four opening win over Cal in 2023 initially looked like a turning point under Freeze, but it proved misleading, especially after Cal returned the favor the following season in Auburn.
The first moment Auburn could truly capture fan excitement may come later, on September 19. While national attention will focus on Lane Kiffin’s return to Oxford with LSU to face Ole Miss, Auburn will be hosting a pivotal matchup of its own. The Tigers will face Jon Sumrall, a coach Auburn leadership once pursued but ultimately couldn’t land, in what could be a defining early-season test.
That game would give Golesh a real opportunity to make a statement. He could reinforce his reputation after upsetting Florida with USF last season, show that Auburn can protect Jordan-Hare Stadium, and send an early warning to the rest of the SEC.
In the end, Finebaum’s concern rings true. Losing to Baylor would feel catastrophic, draining belief from the season before conference play even begins. Even if Auburn wins the opener as expected, the tension won’t fully fade until Florida comes to town in Week 3 to reignite what was once one of the program’s defining rivalries.