When the Phillies arrive at Busch Stadium on Monday night, this won’t feel like an ordinary August series. The three-game matchup carries significant weight for both Philadelphia and St. Louis as they continue jockeying for Wild Card positioning.
Philadelphia currently holds the third NL Wild Card spot, sitting 3 1/2 games ahead of the Cardinals.
Neither team has gotten off to a strong start since the All-Star break, though the Phillies’ 9-13 mark is slightly better than St. Louis’ 9-14 record. Philadelphia came into the season viewed as a World Series contender, but a difficult start forced the club to fight its way back into the postseason picture. The Cardinals, meanwhile, exceeded expectations early in the season before sliding back toward the .500 mark in recent weeks.
For St. Louis, winning two of three against Philadelphia — or pulling off a sweep — would go a long way toward proving they remain legitimate contenders for a Wild Card berth. This also won’t be the Cardinals’ only chance to make up ground against the Phillies this month, as the two teams will meet again Aug. 21-23 at Citizens Bank Park.
It’s also worth remembering that the team that wins the season series will own the head-to-head tiebreaker, potentially becoming the deciding factor if the two clubs finish the season with identical records.
The Cardinals’ best path to winning this series could come from their offense, which has shown signs of life recently. Over their last seven games, St. Louis has scored 37 runs and recorded MLB’s seventh-best OPS at .784. Philadelphia’s bats have also started heating up over that same stretch, with Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber setting the tone by driving in five runs apiece and each posting an OPS above .980.
Busch Stadium has significantly limited offensive production this season, but hitters such as Harper and Schwarber possess enough power to leave the yard in virtually any stadium at any time. With newcomer Luis Arraez now joining Bryson Stott, Trea Turner and Alec Bohm in the infield, Philadelphia also has plenty of players capable of stringing together hits and creating sustained rallies.
Following a sluggish July at the plate, the Cardinals’ top four of JJ Wetherholt, Iván Herrera, Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker have begun to heat up and fuel the team’s offensive turnaround. It’s difficult to envision St. Louis winning this series — or putting together a sustained run of victories later this season — without those key hitters finding consistent success again.
That group has the potential to form one of baseball’s most productive top halves of a lineup, giving the Cardinals a chance to generate offense while allowing the rest of the lineup to contribute in complementary roles.
St. Louis will face Andrew Painter (1-8, 6.48 ERA) on Monday, but the Cardinals will then have to deal with NL Cy Young contenders Cristopher Sánchez (15-4, 2.65 ERA) and Zach Wheeler (10-3, 2.69 ERA).
The Cardinals will counter with three of their more productive starters in Hunter Dobbins, Andre Pallante and Kyle Leahy. However, Philadelphia’s biggest offensive advantage — its abundance of left-handed hitters — will require St. Louis to lean on left-handed relievers Justin Bruihl and Caleb Ferguson in crucial situations. Those individual matchups could ultimately determine the outcome of the series. Although Bruihl and Ferguson have pitched well recently, the Cardinals’ bullpen overall has been too inconsistent and vulnerable.
Philadelphia has dealt with its own bullpen issues this season, much like St. Louis. That could create an opening for the Cardinals if they’re able to chase the Phillies’ starters from the game early and give their offense additional opportunities to build a lead.
Even after trading away several players at the Trade Deadline, the Cardinals continued to emphasize that their priority is building for the future. Still, that doesn’t mean they’ll pass up an opportunity to compete for a postseason berth during the final stretch of the season. If this young Cardinals core hopes to make a push, it will need to deliver against a veteran Phillies squad that has plenty of postseason and World Series experience.