A 9.5-game lead in the NL East is supposed to leave plenty of room for a rough week. Over the past several days, however, the Atlanta Braves have been testing just how quickly that margin can shrink.
Suddenly, a division race that once appeared nearly decided has become a reminder that September baseball can still produce plenty of chaos.
Is it time to panic? Not quite. But it may be time for Atlanta to stop viewing Philadelphia solely in the rearview mirror.
The Braves Did Not Merely Lose in Minnesota
Minnesota swept Atlanta 4-2, 4-1 and 6-4. The Twins struck first in all three games, the Braves never once took a lead, and Atlanta was outscored 14-7 across the series. It marked only the second sweep the Braves have suffered this season, but the bigger concern is the trend surrounding it.
Atlanta’s season-high eight-game winning streak came to an end on Aug. 7. Since then, the Braves have gone 4-8 while scoring just 38 runs in 12 games, or 3.17 per contest. They have scored two runs or fewer five times during that stretch. The offense that appeared rejuvenated immediately after the All-Star break has again become too reliant on one clutch swing to make up for innings of silence.
Martín Pérez, one of Atlanta’s most surprising success stories this year, surrendered four first-inning runs Monday after carrying an 18-inning scoreless streak into the series. Even Chris Sale, who has pushed himself back into the NL Cy Young conversation, recently got no offensive support despite pitching six innings of one-run ball against Arizona.
A lineup can squander only so many strong pitching performances before the standings eventually come calling.
Philadelphia Has Made This a Real Race
The Braves were 73-48 after defeating the Mets on Aug. 12, holding a 9.5-game advantage over Philadelphia. Since then, Atlanta has gone 1-5 while the Phillies have gone a perfect 6-0.
That is a five-game swing in less than a week.
Atlanta still controls the race, but a 4.5-game lead with 35 games remaining is far from secure. The two clubs also have seven head-to-head matchups scheduled for September: four in Philadelphia from Sept. 4-7, followed by three at Truist Park from Sept. 11-13.
The NL East may not require much scoreboard watching after all. Atlanta and Philadelphia will have plenty of opportunities to determine the outcome themselves.
There Are Still Plenty of Reasons Not to Panic
The underlying numbers remain much more reassuring. Atlanta’s 74-53 record comes with a plus-110 run differential, while MLB’s expected standings based on runs scored and allowed put the Braves at 75-52. In other words, their success has not simply been the product of favorable breaks.
Philadelphia tells nearly the opposite story. The Phillies are 70-58 despite a modest plus-15 run differential, with an expected record of 66-62. Atlanta is also 32-24 against teams at .500 or better, compared with Philadelphia’s 26-30 record.
The standings suggest a tightening race. The larger sample still indicates that Atlanta has been the considerably better team.
The Braves also possess enough elite talent to believe this downturn is temporary. Sale continues to perform like an ace, while the deadline acquisition of Lane Thomas has given Atlanta a productive outfield platoon alongside Mike Yastrzemski. There is also time for Austin Riley to find another level, although his historic strikeout pace remains a legitimate concern.
The Next Week Will Tell Us Much More
The timing of Atlanta’s slump could hardly be worse. Following Thursday’s makeup game against the White Sox, the Braves will face Milwaukee and Los Angeles, two of the National League’s top teams.
If Atlanta responds, the Minnesota series may ultimately look like nothing more than an ugly pothole in the road. But if the losses continue while Philadelphia remains hot, a 4.5-game advantage could vanish in a hurry.
The Braves have already shown that a miserable stretch does not have to define their season. Their dreadful June had plenty of historical precedent among teams that ultimately won, and Atlanta answered by creating significant separation in the division.
So, is it time to panic? No, not yet. Is there reason for concern? Absolutely.
Atlanta spent most of the summer building enough of a cushion to withstand a stretch like this. That cushion is now disappearing far faster than anyone expected. The Braves remain in first place, and the numbers still suggest they are the superior team to Philadelphia. They simply no longer have the luxury of playing as though October is already guaranteed.