Burnley prediction made ahead of Arsenal PL clash including preview

With our Arsenal vs Burnley prediction and preview, we look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League game at the Emirates Stadium. Will Arsenal bounce back from last week’s controversial defeat on Tyneside?

Arsenal vs Burnley: The Quick Hits

  • Arsenal are predicted to be strong favourites against Burnley at the Emirates Stadium, with the Gunners given a 63.6% chance of victory by the Opta supercomputer.
  • Mikel Arteta has faced 24 different clubs in Premier League action as a manager at the Emirates. Burnley are the only one he has failed to beat or even see his team score against.
  • Each of Burnley’s last eight points in the Premier League have been collected on the road, but they are winless in their last seven top-flight trips to London.

Match Preview

Arsenal and Tottenham both faced their first defeats of the Premier League season in Matchday 11, each with unique circumstances. Arsenal, led by Mikel Arteta, expressed frustration over refereeing decisions in their 1-0 loss to Newcastle United. Despite concerns about offside, a possible ball out of play, and a questionable push on Gabriel Magalhães, VAR confirmed Anthony Gordon’s second-half goal. Arteta criticized the officiating as “disgraceful,” risking disciplinary action. The loss in Newcastle followed their EFL Cup elimination at West Ham and marked the first time this season that Arsenal failed to score in 17 games. However, they rebounded in the UEFA Champions League with a 2-0 win over Sevilla.

While Arsenal is only three points behind Premier League leaders Manchester City, their performance in the 2023-24 season has been inconsistent. Excluding penalties, they rank 11th in expected goals (xG) with an average of 1.35 per game, compared to last season’s third-place ranking with 1.84 xG per match. Injuries, including those to Gabriel Jesus, Martin Ødegaard, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Bukayo Saka, and Eddie Nketiah, pose challenges for Arteta.

Nketiah, who missed the Sevilla match, has been a prolific home scorer, with all five of his Premier League goals in 2023-24 coming at the Emirates. Arteta, facing Burnley, a team he has struggled against in the past, hopes to have Nketiah available. Burnley, desperate for points after six consecutive home defeats, lost 2-0 to Crystal Palace, leaving them just above the bottom of the Premier League table on goal difference.

Burnley Palace xG race

Burnley struggled in their recent match against Palace, taking 17 shots compared to Palace’s four. However, despite the higher number of attempts, Burnley’s combined expected goals (xG) were only 1.12, slightly lower than their opponents’ 1.3. This result marked their sixth defeat in the last seven league games, increasing the pressure on manager Vincent Kompany. Burnley currently ranks 19th in open-play xG for the season, just above Sheffield United.

A key concern for Kompany is the team’s heavy reliance on Lyle Foster, who has contributed three goals and two assists, making him the only player with more than one top-flight goal involvement this season. With Foster possibly unavailable due to illness until after the upcoming international break, Jay Rodriguez and Zeki Amdouni may lead the attack in the upcoming match.

There are also potential changes in the lineup, with Josh Cullen likely to return after serving a one-match ban for accumulating five yellow cards. The availability of Aaron Ramsey and Ameen Al-Dakhil is uncertain and will be assessed. While Hjalmar Ekdal and Manuel Benson have been recovering with the club’s under-21s, it might be too soon for them to feature in Saturday’s match.

Arsenal vs Burnley Head-to-Head

Arsenal have traditionally been the dominant force in Premier League matches against Burnley, but have had a difficult time of it in recent years.

Arsenal have only won one of their last five Premier League matches against Burnley (D3 L1).

Burnley held the Gunners to a goalless draw in north London in January 2022, and they are unbeaten in their last two visits to the Emirates after a Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang own goal gave them a 1-0 win in December 2020. Burnley had previously lost nine consecutive visits to Arsenal between 1975 and 2019.


Arsenal Burnley stats 21-22


The visitors will want to keep things tight on Saturday, especially given their poor goal-scoring record against their hosts.

Burnley has only scored eight goals in 16 Premier League meetings with Arsenal, never scoring more than once in a single game. No team has ever faced another in the competition more frequently without scoring multiple goals, with Wigan Athletic failing to do so in 16 meetings with both Fulham and Manchester United.

Recent Form

Arsenal is unbeaten in their last 37 home league games against promoted teams (32 wins, five draws), having thrashed Sheffield United 5-0 just a fortnight ago.

Arteta’s team has also won seven of their last nine home games in all competitions, drawing two with London rivals Fulham and Tottenham.

Burnley, on the other hand, will be hoping to put their Turf Moor woes behind them when they travel south. The Clarets’ last eight Premier League points have all come on the road, with the club beating Luton Town and drawing with Nottingham Forest this season.
However, they are winless in their last seven top-flight trips to London, recording four draws and three defeats in the capital since a 2-0 win at Fulham in May 2021.

Arsenal vs Burnley Prediction

Arsenal vs Burnley Prediction Opta


Arsenal are expected to get their title challenge back on track against their struggling opponents on Saturday, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 63.6% chance of victory.

Across 10,000 pre-match simulations, Burnley were only victorious in 13.6% of scenarios, with 22.8% finishing level.

Arsenal’s defeat at Newcastle hit them hard in our overall Premier League predictions, with the Gunners now assigned just a 3.5% chance of the title. Man City (87.6%) remain overwhelming favourites, while Liverpool (7.9%) are considered their main challengers.

Burnley, meanwhile, are relegated in 79.6% of our season simulations, with only Sheffield United (81.9%) viewed as being in greater danger of the drop.


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