Revealed: How Many Points Southampton Need For Promotion

Twelve years ago, we embarked on a journey of two consecutive promotions. At that time, I emphasized the importance of grinding for points and monitoring our progress in the short, medium, and long term. It’s time to reflect on our strategy.

Achieving promotion hinges on building a consistent record of victories. If not winning streaks, it’s about staying unbeaten. I expressed this sentiment a decade ago when we secured two successive promotions. It involves looking back at our performance over the past 3, 4, 6, or even 10 games to gauge our progress and ensure we’re on the right track.

Typically, in the Championship, reaching the playoffs requires accumulating 75-80 points, though sometimes as low as 70 points is sufficient. In our last promotion campaign in 2011/12, we clinched second place with 88 points, while the 6th spot required 75 points.

To secure automatic promotion, you need around 1.91 points per game. However, our initial target is the playoffs, where 75 points average out to 1.63 points per game, which is a good starting point.

Currently, we have 21 points from 13 games, which averages 1.62 points per game—almost exactly what we need to make the playoffs if we maintain this pace. It’s a solid start to the season if we aim for the playoffs.

But when we consider the 3/4/6/10 game principle, our last 3 games have earned us 5 points, which averages 1.67 points per game. Over the last 4 games, we collected 8 points, and for the last 6 games, which includes the defeat at Boro, we garnered 11 points, averaging 1.83 points per game. Looking at the long term of 10 games, we’ve accumulated 16 points in that period, just slightly below our 1.63 points per game target.


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Although there’s still work to be done, we’re making progress. Currently, we haven’t even considered the possibility of making the top two; our focus is on consistently achieving 1.63 points per game and using it as the benchmark.

This benchmark is fluid; if we continue to surpass 1.63 points, our points target will decrease, but if we consistently beat it, we’ll move closer to the top two.

In many ways, this is the only yardstick to measure our season. There will be games when we lose and it seems like everything is falling apart, but by evaluating how many points we’ve collected over the last 3/4/6/10 games, we can determine where we’re succeeding or faltering.

Despite some predicting doom and gloom and a lower table finish, the reality is that we’re on course for the playoffs. What’s more, we’re starting to build momentum, find our form, and grow stronger.

The truth is, if we had gained just two points during that four-game losing streak, we would be in third place now. We can’t be that bad of a team if we’re that close. If we had consistently achieved our 1.63 point target, we would be only one point behind the second-place team.

There are fine margins at play, but we’re making progress and adapting. With a top striker yet to make his debut, we have many reasons to be optimistic.

In a promotion campaign, it’s not about when you score your goals or your performance; all that matters is steadily grinding down the competition by maintaining the 1.63 points per game average. Keep doing that, and suddenly, the table becomes a much happier place.

So, as we move forward, remember that figure of 1.63 points per game. It serves as a constant gauge to determine whether we’re on track, regardless of how many games you apply it to.

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